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This might be best ONP target in a metro Sydney seat – strong conservative working class electorate with high NO vote.
Antony Green on ABC Listen recently named Lindsay as a prospective ONP pickup though he thinks there is more of a chance in regional QLD, NSW (especially Hunter) and Victoria. ONP could get a double-digit primary vote but I can’t see the seat flipping. In 2025, the Greens got swings in traditional working class and mortgage belt suburbs.
Penrith is densifying. This might explain the high-ish Greens vote with the influx of young professionals and first home buyers. The new International Airport will open soon and there is a metro network from St Marys in the works. There’s potential for renewal gentrification in and around the area.
@ Votante
I am interested to look at Orchard Hills whic is currently Semi-rural but there is a planned Metro station so i expect it to urbanise. If it becomes more ethnically diverse. The suburb of Jordan Springs is new but ethnically diverse unlike the rest of Lindsay
Caddens is also a new suburb with is ethnically diverse
A lot of the new commercial and industrial activity will be around Bradfield and the new airport. Orchard Hills is industrialising with more warehouses and office space.
Melissa McIntosh has suggested Liberal rebrand with a new name. This is one of the most likely Capital city Liberal seats to flip to ONP along with Longman and Latrobe and possibly Hawke, Pearce and Canning. These seats tend to have a combination of Low Educaiton less than 25% Bachelor Degree and tend to be Anglo as well.
@Nimalan, I think Lindsay and Hume are the two metro Sydney seats that are most on edge. Demographically, a high percentage of people speak English at home. There are fewer managers and white collar professionals than elsewhere.
@ Votante
I agree. The reason did not mention Hume is that it is not a seat Labor is competative or Labor has held for sometime while Lindsay is actually a Labor seat on state results. Longman, Lindsay and La Trobe are 3 seats Labor would love to win at some point in the future but Hume is not a seat that Labor is interested in
@Nimalan,
I do agree with Lindsay, Hume, Pearce and Canning.I would say Casey and Monash instead of La Trobe. La Trobe is seeing a major popular growth and becoming younger and less anglo.
@ Spacefish
I agree with all the seats you mentioned. La Trobe is undergoing demographic change with the new estates becoming diverse. In fact i have mentioned before i actually have a friend who is a Labor party branch member in La Trobe who mentioned that it is a long term target for the reasons you mentioned correctly. However, i think it will take sometime for that to play out fully for it would need the Urban areas to outweigh the rural areas which are heavily right wing. La Trobe is about 70% English speaking at home which is actually higher than national and state average and because it has a high portion of children (in the new housing estates) the actual electorate is probably more Anglo than the Census data suggests. That will change in the coming years though.